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Kenneth W. Gronbach is a gifted keynote speaker and an internationally recognized expert and futurist in the field of Demography and Generational Marketing. Ken entertains his audiences with his own special brand of wit, humor and clear communication. He makes the science of shifting demography come alive with real life examples that make it relevant to today’s culture, business climate and economy. In his book “The Age Curve, How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm”, published by The American Management Association, Ken takes you through a fascinating common sense understanding of shifting demography and the related opportunities and challenges. The demographic landscape in the United States is made up a series of waves that are about twenty years in duration. It would follow that business will rise and fall according to the critical mass of customers heading toward it. Ken’s latest book “Decades of Difference, Making it Work” (HRD Press), about the United States workforce, was released in October 2010. Ken also writes for the CNBC Guest Blog.
Ken's perspective is macro, a view from 30,000 feet, worldwide and very big picture. Demographers are able to forecast markets, societal phenomena, and economics with uncanny accuracy because they count people, not money or things. For example crime has been down in the United States for the last twenty years because the number of high risk crime committers (men 15 to 30 years old) has been low and fully employed. This is because the fertility in the United States dipped sharply between 1965 and 1984 creating a deficit in our population of about nine million people. This shortage of young people in the labor force also drove labor costs up and manufacturing off shore.
Ken shows how the housing market is being held hostage by big bank foreclosures and why this log jam will soon correct and precipitate a restoration of the United States economy.
Ken talks about how manufacturing will return to the United States with a vengeance because the United States is the only industrialized nation with a huge young highly skilled workforce, Generation Y, born 1985 to 2004. Generation Y is bigger than the Baby Boomers. The United States is the only industrialized nation with above replacement level fertility of 2.2 children per couple. The United States is on the only continent that can both produce and consume within its borders. The European Union has experienced below replacement level fertility for decades and has crippled its labor force and internal consumer demand. China has "prevented" 400,000,000 live births in the last three decades because of its ill-fated one child only policy and will not be able to feed itself in ten to fifteen years, let alone be a manufacturing force. Demographically China is history.
Ken reveals how credit unions and community banks have a unique window of opportunity right now to take market share from the Too Big to Fail banks. A sea of small entrepreneurial business starts are going to be the rule as the economy turns around. Credit unions and small community banks are positioned correctly to meet small business needs. Generation Y will embrace credit unions for their true community stand and accessibility.
Ken speaks about how the employee's market of the last twenty years is about to be reversed. For twenty years the tiny Generation X, born 1965 to 1984, has not supplied enough entry level labor to the work force to meet the demand. The Huge Generation Y born 1985 to 2004 will change all that and the United States will experience an employer's market for the first time in twenty years. Keeping employees motivated will be easy. It will be a condition of employment. Employers will be able to hire the best and brightest employees at will at very competitive rates.
Gronbach: Partial list of Topics
Marketing to the Baby Boomer, the New Demand: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the bloom is off the rose for Boomer spending
A. Consumption in freefall
B. Where will the remaining Boomer dollars go?
C. What is left of the largest inheritance in the history of the world? The new Boomer consumer.
Charting the Course through Demographic Change: The Return of Small Business
A. The demise of Wal-Mart and other big boxes
B. The myth of too big to fail
C. Why mom and pop shops will prevail
D. The new face of retail and manufacturing
E. Community banks and credit unions come of age
The Myth of "the Graying of America: Boomers, born 1945 to 1964, have resisted aging more than any generation in US history
A. Sixty is the new forty
B. How many marriages are too many?
C. Run-a-way demand for the over fifty-five community
D. Inheriting their parents savings and buying starter castles
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